Cognizant Classic picks 2026: This European sleeper is a great bet for a wet and windy forecast
Take a deep breath. Scottie Scheffler isn’t in the field at the 2026 Cognizant Classic. That means we have a normal oddsboard. Sort of. A litany of top names withdrew on Monday, meaning we’re left with a seemingly weak top half of the board.
That shouldn’t matter too much. As Betsperts Golf’s Ron Klos points out in his DFS column on GolfDigest.com this week, the Cognizant Classic winner has been either a pre-tournament favorite or a true longshot in 14 of the past 16 years, underscoring the event’s boom or bust nature. It’s time to fire at the sleepers. Our group is here for it.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2026 Cognizant Classic:
Cognizant Classic picks 2026: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Ryan Gerard (+1850, DraftKings) — Gerard’s hot putting evaporated at Riviera, looking more like the guy who lost a third of a stroke per round on greens the last three years than someone who could actually make a few 10-footers. It could have been him, or could just be Riviera making guys’ heads explode on the putting surfaces. It wasn’t only Gerard riding the struggle bus. I’m willing to give him a mulligan because his high-end ball-striking remained firmly intact. He’s now gained over 3.5 strokes on approach in four of five starts, and PGA National has historically rewarded great ball-strikers who are lousy putters.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Nicolai Hojgaard (+2150, DraftKings) — Nicolai Højgaard comes into the Cognizant Classic displaying amazing form. Højgaard’s tee-to-green talent has been on fire since mid-October. Nicolai has five top-15 finishes in his past seven events! Højgaard’s putter has been hot. At Farmers, he gained a couple of strokes and almost three with the flat stick at TPC Scottsdale en route to a third-place finish. In a weak field, only Gerard is better tee to green than Nicolai, but Højgaard has the putter going, and that’s why he will win.
Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Betsperts: Michael Thorbjornsen (25-1, Bet365) — Michael Thorbjornsen has played well on easier scoring setups against weaker competition, can pour in birdies, especially on par 5s, and some of his best putting performances since turning pro have come on Bermuda greens. The increase in driver usage at PGA National since the renovation works in Thorbjornsen’s favor, as does the ease of scrambling, which is probably the weakest part of his game at this stage.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Rasmus Neergard-Peterson (40-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — The great Dane leads this field in strokes gained/tee to green over the past 50 rounds and is fourth in strokes gained on par 3s, which is an underrated stat this week with PGA National’s difficult one-shotters. He’s a name unfamiliar to most casual fans but won against a great field at the Australian Open in the winter, so he knows how to close.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Nicolai Hojgaard (+2150, DraftKings) — Lot of talk about Ryan Gerard and how well he’s hitting it this week, but tee-to-green, Hojgaard has been better this year. And he’s played a hell of a lot less rounds and didn’t have to make the cross-country trip from L.A. to Florida, so he should be very fresh. Hojgaard also top 20’d in this event a year ago, and is coming off a T-3 in Phoenix.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Ryan Gerard (+1850, DraftKings) — I am certainly not in love with Ryan Gerard’s betting number after all of the withdrawals, but he is absolutely playing the best golf out of anyone teeing it up this week. Gerard put together three runner-up finishes to open the season, and his ball-striking looked sharp as ever last week at Riviera.
Past results: We have our FIRST winner of 2026, with Stephen Hennessey correctly predicting Justin Rose’s victory at Torrey Pines at 60-1!
Cognizant Classic picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Mayo: Johnny Keefer (52-1, DraftKings) — Keefer couldn’t chip or putt out West. Maybe a change of scenery can set him straight. At least with the putting. The last time he was on Bermuda in this region of the country (RSM Classic) was the last time he gained strokes with his flat stick. And for the awful chipping, that’s not getting better any time soon, it’s just bad. Hopefully with the change in ease of hitting greens in regulation, coupled with Keefer’s elite ball-striking (first in SG/approach and third in SG/off the tee of all players in this field in 2026), he simply won’t have to use his short game very often. Plus, there’s the out that PGA National is one of the tour easiest for around-the-green play.
Stewart: Seamus Power (68-1, DraftKings) — Not many people are talking about Seamus Power. That’s probably because they have not looked at the weekend forecast. It is going to get windy and wet. Power’s ability to flight his irons and putt in challenging conditions makes him a sneaky favorite to climb the Cognizant leader board. A notoriously great mid-iron and wedge player, Seamus has gained on approach in seven of his past eight events. Throw in four straight positive starts with the putter, and we have two complementary skills that work well at PGA National.
Noonan: Nico Echavarria (60-1, DraftKings) — Echavarria is one of the best Bermudagrass putters in this week’s field, offering floor and ceiling on the greens. He’s also at his best when the scoring is easy, and the fields aren’t strong. He’s missed the cut in four of his past six starts, but the other two finishes were a T-4 at the RSM and a T-8 two weeks ago at Pebble Beach.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Mac Meissner (47-1, DraftKings) — It’s scary to type out that Mac Meissner is #1 in my model this week—but he’s third in weighted strokes-gained total over the past 50 rounds and loves Bermuda, ranking fifth in SG/putting on Bermuda. He’s a stellar ball-striker with the potential to get hot on these putting surfaces—which is exactly the recipe for success at PGA National.
Powers, Golf Digest: David Ford (115-1, DraftKings) — After earning his way on tour via the PGA Tour University ranking, the North Carolina product has found fairly solid footing in his three starts, highlighted by a T-13 at the AMEX. Like all the other fresh-out-of-college studs on the modern tour, he hits it a country mile, which is now the path to contention on the soft version of PGA National. Can he win? Probably not, but it’s certainly worth finding out at triple-digit odds in an event where either favorites or mega longshots have won 14 of the last 16 Cogs, an excellent stat brought to you by Ron Klos in our DFS column this week.
Lack: Jesper Svensson (90-1, BetRivers) — Jesper Svensson’s power off the tee should play serious dividends at PGA National this week and the Swede is coming off a top-25 finish at the Qatar Masters where he gained over a stroke in both ball-striking categories.
Cognizant Classic picks 2026: Players We’re Fading
Mayo: Shane Lowry (12-1, BetRivers) — Top 5, Top 10? Absolutely. To win? He hasn't won on U.S. soil in more than 10 years. Don’t want to back him as the betting favorite this time around.
Stewart: Michael Thorbjornsen (20-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — The putter showed some of life for Michael Thorbjornsen in Phoenix. Pebble Beach? That was a completely different story. Thorbjornsen lost 10 strokes on the greens. After watching Michael manage his way through a TGL match on Monday night inside the SoFi Center, it was obvious his flat-stick issues remain. Bermudagrass greens are hard to putt when you have confidence, and unfortunately for Thorbjornsen, it does not look like he has any.
Noonan: Will Zalatoris (35-1, FanDuel) — I would normally love Will Zalatoris at the Honda Classic. But at The Cog? Not so much. Throughout his career, Zalatoris has played his best golf when the test is tough. Those days at PGA National seem to be behind us now that the ryegrass overseed covers the fairways, rough, and around-the-green areas.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Keith Mitchell (28-1, Bet365) — I’m as big of a Keith Mitchell fan as there is, and I get his course history is among the best here. But PGA National is too volatile, and Mitchell hasn’t contended for a win in a long time.
Powers, Golf Digest: Ryan Gerard (+1850, DraftKings) — Screw it, I’m doing it. It’s nothing against Gerard, who I’ve spoken to twice now. Incredibly nice, soft-spoken dude who I personally believe has major championship-winning potential. But due to all the WDs he’s now the solo favorite and expected to win. And the whole world is on him. It just doesn’t work like that, as much as we all wish it did.
Lack: Michael Thorbjornsen (25-1, Bet365) — I am certainly high on Michael Thorbjornsen long term, but I don’t think this is the right spot for him. He is coming off nearly a dead last place finish at Pebble Beach, and he has still yet to find considerable success on Bermuda.
Cognizant Classic picks 2026: Matchups
Mayo: David Ford (+105) over Gary Woodland (Coolbet) — Love Ford, and Woodland, despite his familiarity with the course over the years, has been riding the struggle bus. Yet Woodland is a big favorite in this match-up. We’ll go the other way.
Stewart: Nico Echavarria (-124) over Garrick Higgo (DraftKings) — Nico Echavarria’s iron game is coming back. Combined with his exceptional putting skill, Echavarria finished eighth at the AT&T. That form reminds us of the great run Nico went on to close 2025. Garrick Higgo was also great in the fall. Unlike Nico, there are no signs of life, especially with his iron game. Losing a bunch of strokes in five straight events on approach is not a recipe for any success at PGA National. I’ll take Echavarria and cash a winning ticket on Friday night.
Noonan: Max McGreevy (-125) over Chris Kirk (BetOnline) — McGreevy finished third in my model this week and is grinding the schedule hard, staying in the field despite earning his way into the early-season Signature Events. McGreevy struggled with his putter out west, but he’s been a significantly better putter on Bermuda grass, including back-to-back strong fall finishes at the Butterfield Bermuda (T-3) and RSM Classic (solo second).
Hennessey, Golf Digest: John Parry (-125) over Michael Brennan (DraftKings) — Brennan’s performances post-win in Utah has been puzzling. He seems to be searching for something, which is always a perfect target for matchups. Parry, the 39-year-old rookie from England, had a nice tournament at the Sony Open and hasn’t missed a cut across all tours since October. Seems like a nice steady-eddie against a super volatile golfer.
Powers, Golf Digest: Keith Mitchell (+100) over Michael Thorbjornsen (Bet365) — Really good starts to the year for both guys, especially on the OTT front. Mitchell can't buy a putt, but he should be able to on Bermuda this week at a place he's won before.
Lack: Johnny Keefer (-175) over Andrew Putnam (Southpoint) — This is typically more juice than I enjoy laying in the matchup market, but I could not believe these players were matched up against each other. Johnny Keefer is a far superior ball-striker to Andrew Putnam, who may struggle even further out of the thicker rough this year.
Matchup Results from the Genesis Invitational: Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Morikawa (-110) over Henley); Noonan: PUSH (Fleetwood (-111) over Schauffele); Lack: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from the 2026 season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack: 5-1-0 (up 3.26 units); Stewart: 3-1-1 (up 1.65 units); Powers: 4-2-0 (up 1.61 units); Mayo: 3-3-0 (up 0.26 units); Hennessey: 3-3-0 (down 0.26 units); Noonan: 1-4-1 (down 3.05 units)
Cognizant Classic picks 2026: Top 10s
Mayo: David Ford (+930, DraftKings) — Between the swing season and the start of 2026, there’s no player in the field ahead Ford in ball-striking. Can he make enough putts to win? That’s debatable. But a Top 10, certainly a possibility at long odds.
Stewart: Johnny Keefer (+500, DraftKings) — I believe John Keefer is an incredible value play, and I’m far from the only one. Keefer’s outright odds started in the triple digits this week. Those plummeted quickly into the mid-50s. An impeccable ball-striker, John needs a new putting surface. The last time he rolled the rock on Bermudagrass, he finished seventh at the RSM Classic. Keep the tee-to-green play the same, and when the putter pops in Florida, collect on those 10 places will make you wish you took him to win!
Noonan: Johnny Keefer (+500, DraftKings) — It’s been a pretty uneventful start on the PGA Tour for the top Korn Ferry grad of 2025, but Johnny Keefer has made the cut in his first four starts, and the ball-striking numbers have been eye-popping. Keefer has 13 Shotlink-measured rounds to start the season, and he’s gained an average of 1.54 strokes per round ball-striking, the third-highest mark this week’s field over the same time frame. His short game has held him back, but he’s played a lot of collegiate, PGA Tour of Americas, and KFT events on Bermuda putting surfaces and fared well, including a T-7 finish this fall at the RSM Classic, where he gained 0.9 strokes per round putting. If he can keep the elite ball-striking numbers going, I like his chances this week.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Daniel Berger (+360, FanDuel) — The Jupiter resident eats at PGA National, ranking fifth in SG/total at the Cognizant Classic venue. He has three top-five finishes over the course of his career, and it’d be no surprise to see him near the top of the leader board yet again.
Powers, Golf Digest: Eric Cole (+750, FanDuel) — This is just a large top 10 number on the California-born Cole, who has grown into the Florida Man of all Florida Men, building a reputation as a mini tour legend in the Sunshine state. Don’t love how he’s played this event since they massacred the course in 2024, but he’s still an auto play on the FLA swing to me.
Lack: Alex Smalley (+450, BetRivers) — Alex Smalley is coming off a sneaky top-20 finish at Pebble Beach where he gained strokes in all four categories in a signature event. Smalley is now back on Bermuda and the East Coast, where he played his college golf, and I expect him to continue his momentum this week at PGA National in a much weaker field.
Top-10 results from the Genesis Invitational: Noonan: 1 for 1 (Collin Morikawa +250); Everyone else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from the 2026 season: Noonan: 3 for 6 (up 8.6 units); Mayo: 3 for 6 (up 10.7 units); Stewart: 2 for 6 (up 2.65 units); Lack: 1 for 6 (up 1 units); Powers: 1 for 6 (down 0.9 units); Hennessey: 0 for 6 (down 6 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith's winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.