Cognizant Classic DFS picks 2026: I’m buying the longshot with the home-course advantage
Editor's Note: This article is published in partnership with Betsperts Golf, a Golf Digest content partner.
Alex Slitz
Prior to 2024, the average winning score was 10-under, and PGA National had been one of the toughest non-major courses on tour. Since the course changes two years ago, the average winning score has jumped to 18-under. Last year, PGA National played the easiest in its history with a scoring average of 1.74 under-par per round. A record 38 golfers shot -10 or better. From 2006-2023, only 11 total golfers shot 10-under or better.
The winner has been either a pre-tournament favorite or a true longshot in 14 of the past 16 years, underscoring the event’s boom-or-bust nature. Much of that volatility stems from the layout itself. With water in play on 15 holes, the most on tour, penalty areas serve as the course’s primary defense and can quickly derail a round.
Unlike more tree lined parkland venues, PGA National features relatively sparse tree coverage and sits just seven miles from the Atlantic Ocean, leaving it vulnerable to shifting coastal winds. Success here typically requires a balanced combination of sharp ball striking and a reliable short game, along with the discipline to avoid penalty areas and control trajectory in the breeze.
Success here will also depend highly upon the player’s ability to navigate the closing stretch of intimidating holes, which is famously known as the “Bear Trap.” The 15th and 17th holes are long par 3s over water, while the 16th is a forced layup to another approach shot over water.
After a rush of withdrawals on Monday morning, there remain only eight players in the field inside the top 50 of the world rankings. After Ben Griffin withdrew, world No. 26 Ryan Gerard is the highest-ranked player left. Other headliners include Shane Lowry, Brooks Koepka, Rasmus Hojgaard, Nicolai Hojgaard, Will Zalatoris, Max Homa and Michael Thorbjornsen
$9,000+ range
Play: Ryan Gerard, $9,700
Cliff Hawkins
On a course where elite ball-striking is nearly a prerequisite, Gerard arrives in Palm Beach Gardens in top form. Over his past 20 rounds, he is gaining an average of 1.18 strokes per round combined off the tee and on approach, placing him among the best performers in the world in that span.
He has also been one of the hottest players on tour, recording four top-11 finishes in his past six starts. Just as importantly, he appears to have found consistency on the greens, gaining 0.29 strokes per round with the putter this season. With consecutive starts in Signature Events now under his belt, Gerard stands out near the top of this weaker field and should contend for a win this week at PGA National.
Play: Nicolai Hojgaard, $9,400
Continuing with the ball-striking theme, over the last nine months Nicolai Hojgaard leads the entire field, gaining 1.36 strokes per round tee to green. During that same stretch, he and his brother, Rasmus, are the only players in this price range who are also gaining strokes on the greens, giving him a rare combination of elite ball-striking and positive putting. Like Gerard, his recent form has been outstanding, highlighted by three top-four finishes in his past six starts.
Fade: Keith Mitchell, $9,300
Icon Sportswire
Over his past 25 starts, Mitchell has managed just three top-10 finishes. His 2026 campaign has not inspired much confidence either, with only one finish inside the top 40 through five starts. Even in a weaker field, it is difficult to justify expecting a ceiling performance. Based on both recent form and longer-term results, there is little reason to believe he will outperform his salary this week.
$8,000+ range
Play: Haotong Li, $8,100
Mike Mulholland
On a course that epitomizes volatility like PGA National does, Li presents a similar quality with spike potential that is unmatched in this range. Perhaps the best overall driver of the ball in this field, he has gained strokes off the tee in 19 consecutive starts.
But it is his boom/bust nature both on approach and putting that is so intriguing. Just this year he has already spiked twice on approach gaining four-plus total strokes at the American Express and the Farmers Insurance Open. On the greens, he has gained at least 0.50 strokes per round in nine different tournaments over the past eight months.
Fade: Thorbjorn Olesen, $8,500
Even in such a weak field, the data doesn’t justify Olesen being this pricey. He has had a rough start to his 2026 PGA campaign with missed cuts at both the Farmers and in the Phoenix Open. Olesen has also never had much success in Florida, which includes two missed cuts at PGA National in his only two starts here.
$7,000+ range
Play: Eric Cole, $7,300
Orlando Ramirez
Cole checks numerous boxes this week. He is one of the best in the field on short courses, excels on Bermuda greens, and over the past three years has gained more than one stroke per round in easy scoring conditions.
With 43 percent of approach shots at PGA National coming from 150-200 yards, it was Cole's performance in one of the new metrics we are unveiling in the Rabbit Hole that caught my attention. The new metric I created is called Approach Scoring Opps. It measures the rate at which approach shots from each yardage range produce birdie-or-better putts inside 5, 10 and 15 feet. And over Cole’s past 20 rounds, he is well above average in creating scoring chances at a 28-percent clip inside of 15 feet from 151-175 yards.
$6,000+ range
Play: Luke Clanton, $6,600
Icon Sportswire
Priced as low as he has ever been, it’s time to jump back on the uber-talented Clanton. While his short game has struggled mightily during this cold stretch, his ball-striking has remained sharp.
PGA National is also Clanton’s home course, and one he estimated that he has played over 50 times. In his first start here last year, Clanton finished 18th. His spike approach upside, overall talent and course knowledge have me very optimistic for his chances to once again finish inside the top 20 this week.
Ron Klos (@PGASplits101 on X) is a PGA Tour data analyst for Betsperts Golf.