Cognizant Classic 2026: Why Brooks Koepka is one of my favorite bets

Go east, young men. The PGA Tour heads to Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., to begin the annual Florida Swing. While PGA National is no longer the stress test it once was, it still features one of the most demanding closing stretches in professional golf, a finish that rewards a worthy champion.

The 2026 Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches finds itself in a challenging spot on the schedule, sandwiched between Signature Events, causing a flurry of Monday withdraws from the top end of the field. That said, several past champions and familiar faces return to PGA National alongside a hungry group of contenders looking to play their way into bigger events.

Welcome to Florida, where the weather is pristine and scoring volatility hits peak levels. Precision is paramount at PGA National.

Watch the full Preferred Lines betting show powered by Read The Line.

Here are my top-10 contenders to watch this week at the 2026 Cognizant Classic.

10. Haotong Li

Viewed as a longshot by oddsmakers, Haotong Li offers an intriguing upside option. His volatility mirrors PGA National itself, but when his game peaks, he capitalizes.

Li has posted four T-11-or-better finishes in his past six starts across the PGA Tour and DP World Tour. His approach proximity from 150–200 yards will be critical, as a large percentage of shots at PGA National come from that range into water-guarded greens. If he looks sharp early on, watch out for Haotong Li.

9. Aaron Rai

Water is in play on 15 holes at PGA National, which consistently produces among the most penalty strokes per event on tour. That elevates the importance of driving accuracy and tight dispersion off the tee, a natural fit for Aaron Rai.

The Englishman calls Florida home during the season, so a return to familiar Bermudagrass should suit him well. He can spike with his irons at any time and has proven he can close when in contention.

8. Will Zalatoris

Not long ago, Will Zalatoris was viewed as a major championship force, sitting comfortably inside the top 10 of the Official World Golf Rankings. He arrives this week ranked 252nd, a steep fall after several injuries derailed his momentum.

Zalatoris needs a statement week, and the Cognizant Classic presents a prime opportunity given the field and course setup. The talent remains. If he starts flag hunting on the Champion Course, he could quickly remind everyone why he once belonged among the elite.

RELATED: Golf's best gambling games, explained

7. Mac Meissner

Trending iron play and improved driving accuracy land Mac Meissner firmly on this list. He’s gained strokes on approach in nine of his past 10 starts, recording five top-20 finishes in that stretch, the best run of his young career.

Bogey avoidance is critical at PGA National, and Meissner ranks fourth in the field. Pair that discipline with strong Bermudagrass putting metrics, and he could be in position to contend for his first win.

6. Nicolai Højgaard

Both Højgaard brothers sit near the top of the odds board, but Nicolai is the one to target this week. In his last six worldwide starts, he has three finishes of T-4 or better, including a T-3 at the WM Phoenix Open.

A ball-striking standout, Højgaard ranks comfortably inside the top five in the field in strokes gained/off the Tee and approach. His strengths align perfectly with Florida golf—keep him on your radar not just this week, but throughout the upcoming Florida Swing.

5. Brooks Koepka

Excitement surged when Brooks Koepka rejoined the PGA Tour last month, but the West Coast was never the ideal fit for his game. Florida is.

Koepka gained strokes ball-striking and around the greens in his first two starts but gave it back with a cold putter. A Palm Beach County native, he played his high school golf just minutes from PGA National and finished T-2 here in 2019. With the hometown crowd behind him, he’ll be motivated. If the putter cooperates, he’s a serious threat, and hungry for a win to secure entry into upcoming Signature Events.

4. Michael Thorbjornsen

Just weeks ago at the WM Phoenix Open, Michael Thorbjornsen stood on the 16th tee as the solo leader with three holes to play. Though he ultimately finished T-3, the experience should serve him well.

TPC Scottsdale has shown strong correlation to PGA National, suggesting Thorbjornsen could be primed for another run. He’s been excellent at finding greens in regulation this season and hits it plenty far to score on the par 5s. As usual, his ceiling will depend on the putter.

3. Daniel Berger

A late addition to the field, Daniel Berger returns to PGA National, where he led after the first round in 2025. T-4 finishes in 2020 and 2022 strengthen his case, especially following several withdrawals from early favorites.

Berger thrives in the wind and controls his ball flight as well as anyone. He understands Florida golf, ranking third in the field in total strokes gained in the state over the past five years. He’s mentioned that this is his favorite course on tour, and this is a great chance to finally get that long-awaited win.

2. Shane Lowry

Few navigate PGA National and the Bear Trap like Shane Lowry. He leads the field in both scoring and strokes gained on approach at PGA National and has consistently contended here on Sundays.

If not for a sudden weather shift while standing on the 18th tee in 2022, Lowry likely would have won. Over the past 40 rounds, he leads the field in iron play. With a long drought since his last solo PGA Tour victory, the motivation is clear.

1. Ryan Gerard

PGA National quickly exposes any weakness in a swing. Ryan Gerard arrives with none.

He has been striping it, consistently posting elite ball-striking numbers that make him my top contender this week. Runner-up finishes at The American Express and the Sony Open to begin 2026 showcase his precision on demanding layouts where fairways are essential.

Gerard nearly won this event in 2023. He’s back, confident, and poised. The time is now.

Joe Idone is a Read The Line contributor and host of the Preferred Lines podcast.